Key Points
- Research suggests that the RAND Corporation’s 2025 study estimates $79 trillion in income has been redistributed from the bottom 90% to the top 1% since 1975, based on a comparison to a counterfactual scenario of more equitable growth.
- The evidence leans toward this figure being credible, as it is supported by the study’s author, Carter C. Price, and cited by reputable sources like NationofChange and Senator Bernie Sanders.
- There is no significant controversy found regarding this specific estimate, though the study is a working paper and may not have undergone full peer review.
Overview
The RAND Corporation’s 2025 study, titled “Measuring the Income Gap from 1975 to 2023: Extending Previous Work” (WR-A516-2), provides an estimate of income redistribution in the United States, suggesting a significant shift of wealth over the decades. This response outlines the key findings and contextual details for a lay audience, followed by a detailed survey note for those seeking deeper insights.
Study Findings
The study estimates that $79 trillion in income has been redistributed from the bottom 90% of workers to the top 1% since 1975. This figure reflects the cumulative impact of rising income inequality, calculated by comparing actual income growth to what it would have been if growth had been shared more evenly, similar to the post-World War II period up to 1974. In 2023 alone, the bottom 90% would have earned an additional $3.9 trillion under this counterfactual scenario.
Context and Credibility
This estimate extends earlier work by RAND, building on a 2020 study that estimated $50 trillion in redistribution up to 2018. The increase to $79 trillion is attributed to factors like inflation, continued inequality growth, and the extended time frame to 2023. The study, authored by Carter C. Price, is a working paper from the RAND Corporation, a nonpartisan research organization, and has been cited by sources like NationofChange and Senator Bernie Sanders, adding to its credibility. However, as a working paper, it may not have undergone full peer review, which is worth noting for academic rigor.
Supporting Sources
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Income Redistribution Estimate
This section provides a comprehensive examination of the RAND Corporation’s 2025 study on income redistribution, offering a detailed breakdown of the findings, methodology, and contextual factors. It aims to mirror the style of a professional research article, ensuring all relevant details from the investigation are included for a thorough understanding.
Background and Study Overview
The RAND Corporation, a nonpartisan research institution focused on policy analysis, released a working paper titled “Measuring the Income Gap from 1975 to 2023: Extending Previous Work” (WR-A516-2) on February 16, 2025, authored by Carter C. Price. This study builds on prior research, notably the 2020 study “Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018,” which estimated a $50 trillion redistribution from the bottom 90% to the top 1% up to 2018. The 2025 study extends this analysis to 2023, estimating a cumulative redistribution of $79 trillion since 1975, reflecting the ongoing impact of rising income inequality.
The study’s findings have been highlighted in various media outlets and political discussions, including coverage by NationofChange and a press release from Senator Bernie Sanders, underscoring its relevance to contemporary economic policy debates. Given the current date, July 9, 2025, the study is recent and aligns with ongoing discussions on economic disparity.
Key Findings and Methodology
The central estimate is that $79 trillion in income has been redistributed from the bottom 90% of workers to the top 1% since 1975. This figure is derived from a counterfactual scenario where income growth from 1975 to 2023 mirrored the more equitable distribution observed from 1945 to 1974, a period characterized by broader sharing of economic gains. Specifically, the study finds that in 2023 alone, the bottom 90% would have earned an additional $3.9 trillion if growth had been distributed evenly, contributing to the cumulative $79 trillion over the period.
The methodology involves comparing actual income growth to this counterfactual, accounting for factors such as inflation and the extended time frame. The increase from the 2020 study’s $50 trillion estimate is attributed to these factors, as well as continued growth in inequality. The study was sponsored by Civic Ventures and conducted within RAND’s Education and Labor division, emphasizing its focus on economic and labor policy implications.
Supporting Evidence and Citations
The study’s findings are corroborated by several sources:
- The RAND Corporation’s official page for the study (https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA516-2.html) confirms the $79 trillion estimate, detailing the extension of prior work and the $3.9 trillion gap in 2023.
- NationofChange, in an article dated March 4, 2025, reported, “since 1975, $79 trillion in wealth has been transferred from the bottom 90 percent of earners to the top 1 percent,” aligning with the study’s findings (https://www.nationofchange.org/2025/03/05/since-1975-79-trillion-has-been-redistributed-from-the-bottom-90-to-the-top-1/).
- Senator Bernie Sanders’ press release on March 4, 2025, stated, “Since 1975, nearly $80 trillion in wealth has been redistributed from the bottom 90% of Americans to the top 1%,” further validating the estimate (https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/new-study-nearly-80-trillion-redistributed-from-the-bottom-90-to-the-top-1-since-1975/).
These citations demonstrate the study’s impact and acceptance in public discourse, though it is noted that the study is a working paper, intended for informal peer review and not necessarily formally edited, as per RAND’s description.
Comparison with Previous Estimates
To contextualize the $79 trillion figure, it is useful to compare it with the 2020 study:
- The 2020 study, “Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018,” estimated a $50 trillion redistribution, with an annual impact of $2.5 trillion in 2018 alone, as reported by sources like Time and Business Insider.
- The increase to $79 trillion in the 2025 study is explained by inflation, continued growth in inequality, and the extended period to 2023, as noted in the study’s content. This comparison highlights the accelerating nature of income inequality over time.
Potential Criticisms and Limitations
While no direct criticisms of the 2025 study were found, the investigation considered potential issues by examining critiques of the 2020 study, given its methodological similarity. The 2020 study, also a working paper, was not found to have significant public criticisms in the search, suggesting that RAND’s approach is generally accepted. However, as a working paper, the 2025 study may not have undergone full peer review, which could be a limitation for academic rigor. Additionally, the counterfactual scenario relies on historical data from 1945–1974, which may not account for structural changes in the economy, such as globalization or technological advancements, potentially affecting the estimate’s accuracy.
Implications and Broader Context
The $79 trillion estimate underscores the significant economic shift toward greater inequality, with implications for policy debates on taxation, labor rights, and social welfare. Senator Sanders, for instance, linked the findings to calls for reversing tax policies favoring the wealthy, highlighting the political resonance of the study. The RAND Corporation’s focus on real-world policy issues, as seen in their broader research portfolio, reinforces the study’s relevance to current economic challenges.
Summary Table: Key Estimates and Comparisons
| Study Year | Period Covered | Redistribution Estimate | Annual Impact (Latest Year) | Key Factors for Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1975–2018 | $50 trillion | $2.5 trillion (2018) | N/A |
| 2025 | 1975–2023 | $79 trillion | $3.9 trillion (2023) | Inflation, inequality growth, extended time frame |
This table summarizes the evolution of estimates, providing a clear comparison for readers.
In conclusion, the RAND Corporation’s 2025 study provides a robust estimate of $79 trillion in income redistribution since 1975, supported by credible sources and aligned with ongoing discussions on economic inequality. While limitations exist due to its working paper status, the findings offer valuable insights for understanding and addressing income disparities in the United States.
